What Could Possibly Be Next in 2020?

5 Key Points on the Election, the Market and How it May Impact You

This week Moneta hosted a webinar featuring respected thought leader and Washington insider, Greg Valliere, to address some of our clients’ most pressing questions about the upcoming election and its impact on the market. His perspective is drawn from his 40+ years of experience in researching how Congress and the White House shape fiscal policies for institutional and retail investors.

Valliere notes that things can shift quickly in both the political and financial market environments. Our following “Top 5 Takeaways” represent his comments made on the evening of Wednesday, October 21 to include:

  1. In general, the financial market likes predictability. The Constitution of the United States is clear that we must inaugurate a president at Noon on January 20. If late vote counting and a tight race create uncertainty, it may have a negative impact on the market.
  2. While the presidential race is important, so are Senate elections this year. Typically, the market prefers different parties occupying the House and Senate to keep things from changing too swiftly. With the possibility that the Democrats could take the majority in the Senate this year, that is also a race to watch closely.
  3. While this year’s race may seem reminiscent of that in 2016, it’s not entirely. While polls show Trump down, there are key differences this time. With the pandemic going on, 24% of the electorate have already cast their ballots. More women are supporting Joe Biden right now than they did Hillary Clinton at this stage of the election in 2016. Also, Republicans are low on funds with Biden’s supporters outspending Trump’s 2-to-1. All that being said, is it still possible for Trump to win this election? Yes; in 2020 nothing has proven to be predictable, so we will have to wait and see.
  4. As far as relief for COVID-19, while the Fed seems to be prepared to do what it takes to keep the economy going, many leaders are concerned about additional national debt. While the national deficit is top-of-mind with many voters also, Valliere believes the political courage to go after the national debt by a candidate will need an event, like possibly instability in the bond market, to be addressed directly.
  5. Looking ahead, Valliere believes it’s time for a new generation of leadership in the U.S. President Donald Trump is age 74, Joe Biden is 77 and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is 80. Valliere looks for many new Nextgen candidates in 2024 along with many we saw early in 2020’s election.

Greg Valliere

As events continue to unfold, Valliere recommends the website Realclearpolitics.com for the most up-to-date and simplified content on the latest in our political environment.

Save the date for our next Speaker Series event Tuesday, November 17, with author Alan Spector to discuss retirement life planning concepts, tools and resources to help retirees and those planning for it make the most of the retirement years.

© 2020 Moneta Group Investment Advisors, LLC. All rights reserved. These materials were prepared for informational purposes only based on materials deemed reliable, but the accuracy of which has not been verified. This is not an offer to sell or buy securities, nor does it represent any specific recommendation. You cannot invest directly in an index. You should consult with an appropriately credentialed professional before making any financial, investment, tax or legal decision. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. These materials do not take into consideration your personal circumstances, financial or otherwise.

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