All Eyes on Earnings as Predictions Grow Grim About Shocks and Aftershocks

Aoifinn Devitt – Chief Investment Officer

As we await the start of the third quarter earnings season, it is clear that there is likely to be considerable dispersion among sectors.  Energy stocks are expected to dominate in terms of earnings growth, while other sectors, such as communications, tech, financials, and utilities are expected to see declines.  Some companies are beginning to feel the effects of a strong dollar, which is impacting the price competitiveness of exports, while the relentless strength of the currency is also eroding the economic health of trading partners.

As markets continued to digest the recent US jobs report, which showed a rise in non-farm payrolls of 263,000 in September, the initial positive start to the month in equity markets was eroded.  As we write now, markets remain on edge, and are inclined to react to the downside as rhetoric darkens.  Examples of this include the recent suggestion by Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, that the US was facing a “very, very serious” mix of headwinds, including the worsening geopolitical situation in Ukraine.

The Federal Reserve has telegraphed that it is likely to be highly data dependent as it decides on the future course of policy, and clearly two of the main data points it is focused on are inflation and employment levels.[1] It seems to be assured that some of its tightening to date (rate rises of 300 percent over 7 months) is seeing an effect on prices  – in particular, the way that mortgage rates essentially doubling year on year have resulted in a sharp tick down in house price appreciation, so that average prices are likely to finish the year flat.

Other sectors, though, are experiencing more of a “lag in transmission” of tighter conditions and have not yet seen price reductions. It is notable that one of the areas that the Fed foresees as key to price reductions is margin compression in sectors such as retail – where margin expansion has latterly led to a windfall of sorts (e.g. in the used car retail segment). The margin expansion that was enabled when supply chain shortages met buoyant demand, far exceed the contribution of wage rises to the end price.  Pressure on margins will likely translate into pressure on earnings for equities, and this is no doubt behind the weakness in current trading.

As we look around the globe, we can see mini financial experiments playing out on smaller stages – all of which are interesting petri dishes for policies not yet tried in the US, but potentially a harbinger of things to come.  A prime example of this is the UK, where the governor of the Central Bank threw down the gauntlet to pension funds battered by falling government bond prices – telling them that they had “three days left” to reduce their exposures, at which point the bank backstop would be removed.  Markets predictably reacted poorly.  For now, it is critical to watch and learn from these developments, to avoid both further mistakes and deeper woes and also to take the temperature of market participants.

[1] See: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20221010a.htm

Source: Morningstar as of 10/12/2022

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