Recently, Moneta was fortunate to host The Carlyle Group’s, Admiral James Stavridis, for a chat with our Chief Investment Officer, Andrew Kelsen, on a range of geopolitical topics and the Admiral’s thoughts on leadership. The retired four-star U.S. naval officer and former 16th Supreme Allied Commander for NATO provided thoughtful and interesting perspective during the chat. Below is a summary of select items discussed.
Geopolitical Outlook
Andrew Kelsen began the conversation with a question on overall global security and asked Admiral Stavridis for his current “snapshot” of the world. The Admiral responded/said he would group things into three specific geographic buckets:
- Middle East: Israel has really established “escalation dominance” over the last year with the Houthis in Yemen the only legitimate adversary at this time. Iran is reeling from losses incurred by Hezbollah in Lebanon and the regime change as Syria’s Assad was ousted by a rebel group. This portends lower risk of additional escalation and less appetite for Iran to respond especially with President-elect Trump to take office shortly. Iran itself is in an interesting domestic situation which its government and leadership will have to address or events may do it for them. The country is demographically very youthful and with over 52% of its ~90 million people under the age of 35. There is clear discontent by younger generations with the theocracy that Iran operates under.
- Ukraine: Ultimately, nobody knows what will happen between Russia and Ukraine because that is the nature of war. It is war. Ukraine is bleeding manpower and Russia faces continuing economic and financial struggles due to ongoing sanctions. Team Trump has the opportunity to broker a ceasefire. A resolution of this ongoing conflict would likely seek ample funds flowing into Ukraine for reconstruction purposes much like South Korea experienced following the Korean War. Russia would stand to benefit from a settlement as it would allow economic reengagement with the West. It is important any settlement that involves Ukraine giving up land is offset by economic and financial injections into their country by the US and the West. Additionally, a settlement from Russia’s point-of-view, will likely require Ukraine operate from a position of neutrality over a period to include Vladimir Putin’s lifetime at minimum.
- Pacific (Asia): At this time, it is hard to say whether Team Trump will stake a strong or modest approach to China. Rhetoric is high and it would seem likely the new administration will lean toward a hard line. Interestingly, Secretary of State nominee, Marco Rubio, is sanctioned by China which certainly begs the question of how exactly does that specific relationship pan out? Therefore, it may be a bumpy ride diplomatically and Trump aims for one “big, beautiful idea” as it relates to China. Practically, the truth is the two largest economies in the world are not going to completely decouple from themselves. Tariffs will only go so far because neither are likely to walk away from deep economic links or seek an endless war. In addition to the China dynamics, India is rapidly becoming an economic engine and a clear leader among the rising Global South. It benefits from a massive population, political stability and a nimbleness in its approach to navigating the needs and desires of those seeking to partner with them.
Leadership Comments
Finally, we spent a few minutes on the Admiral’s comments on leadership. More information can be found on the website called Navigating Leadership which delves into a variety of items concerning attributes of solid leadership. For our chat, he articulated the following three key elements of great leadership and a few pitfalls he has learned in his own journey of becoming a leader.
- Key Characteristics of Leadership
- Be humble and don’t stray into believing “only I have the answer.”
- Be physically fit which allows one to have the necessary energy and drive to lead.
- Engage your peer network and take care of the people you lead given they may be your best allies if circumstances move against you.
- Pitfalls of Leadership
- Ironclad rule: Don’t lose your temper or raise your voice. Both are counterproductive.
- Avoid demeaning others because it doesn’t help with solving the problem.
- Don’t obsess with details; allow high standards to lead the way.
- Delegate: No one nation or organization is as smart as everyone thinking together.
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